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September 7, 2025Greece‘s tourism revenue forecast for the year remains bullish due to strong growth in high-spending markets such as the United States and an increase in airline capacity even for the offseason. Although the overall volume of visitors stagnated or declined due to lower arrivals from key markets as well as a drop in arrivals by road from neighboring countries, higher spending per visitor has compensated for much of the slide and/or stagnation. The shift to premium tourism, together with the Greek’s foundation offerings, the development of core international routes, and evolving travel fundamentals will keep Greek tourism revenues above last year’s record value.As Greece enters the fall months, some analysts have drawn complex, although largely optimistic, conclusions regarding the country’s tourism performance. Arrivals during the summer months have always been critical to tourism revenue, but the most recent months have been full of encouraging signs, albeit challenges. Considering the current state of the market, it is likely that, as of today, 2025 will outperform 2024 ahead of schedule which is historically unprecedented.The optimism is largely driven by growth in international markets i.e. the USA, and the increasing volume of airline seats available for fall. Greece 2025 outlook is complex; recent international tourism data still shows soft demand for arrivals, recurring elements of tension in eurozone inflation, and the lingering geopolitical challenges will result in persistent headwinds.Greece’s 2024 Tourism Performance: A Record Year2024 marked a historical year for Greece’s tourism industry, with the total revenues from tourism reaching an impressive €21.6 billion. This included not just traditional travel but also cruise tourism, a key contributor to the country’s economic health. However, the 2025 outlook seems even more optimistic, with the potential to exceed last year’s record, driven by consistent growth in international markets and increased spending among tourists.Early Indicators of 2025: Mixed Arrivals and Rising SpendingTourism statistics for the first half of 2025 show a slight increase in the number of visitors, with a growth rate of only 0.6%. June experienced a dip of 1.7%, hinting at a potential slowdown. However, air travel saw an upward trend, with international flights increasing by 5.4% in June and 4.6% in July compared to the previous year, pointing to a preference for air travel over road arrivals, which are typically associated with lower spending.One of the biggest challenges for Greece’s tourism industry is the slow-down in arrivals from neighbouring countries like Bulgaria and Romania, which have traditionally been high-volume but low-spending markets. These declines have, however, been counterbalanced by a rise in average spending per visitor, which has increased by 10% in 2025, reaching an average of €623 per trip.The Crucial Third Quarter for Greece’s TourismThe third quarter of the year, covering July and August, remains crucial for Greece’s tourism revenue, accounting for over half of the annual income. This period traditionally drives more than 50% of Greece’s tourism revenues. For example, in 2024, the July and August months alone brought in over €11 billion, out of a total of €20.59 billion in tourism revenues. Although the overall number of tourists during this period has shown slight fluctuations, spending continues to be strong, with an 8.8% rise in revenues in June alone.The shift towards higher-value international visitors—primarily from the United States and other high-spending countries—has helped buffer the drop in arrivals from traditionally lower-spending countries. Although visitor numbers may fluctuate at times, the overall rise in expenditure remains a key factor propelling steady growth in the tourism sector.The Impact of Inflation on Greece’s Tourism MarketOne of the major factors influencing the tourism market in 2025 is inflation, which reached 3.7% in July. As a result, prices for hotels and other tourist services have increased, with average hotel prices for a double room rising to €147 per night—up from €142 in 2024. These price increases could potentially discourage tourists from nearby Balkan countries, where road arrivals have seen significant declines.However, the price hikes have led to a paradoxical outcome: while fewer tourists are arriving by road, the ones who do visit are spending more, thus increasing the average revenue per tourist. In particular, international air arrivals have surged, compensating for the decline in lower-spending road visitors. These trends suggest a growing preference for premium experiences, which aligns with the shifting demographics of tourists visiting Greece.Key Drivers for Greece’s Tourism Revenue Growth in 2025Several factors are contributing to the optimism surrounding Greece’s tourism revenue for 2025:Increased Airline Capacity in AutumnGreece’s airline seat capacity is set to rise by 4.9% in the autumn months compared to 2024. This increase in scheduled flights, particularly from European markets, indicates a growing preference for off-peak travel to Greece. This shift toward shoulder-season travel is expected to boost tourism revenues, especially during the typically quieter months of September and October.The American Market BoomThe United States has emerged as a vital source of tourism for Greece, with 103 direct flights per week to the country in summer 2025. American visitors to Athens increased by 5% in the first half of the year, and spending from U.S. tourists saw a remarkable 30% rise, generating €704 million in revenue. This trend is expected to continue, with American tourists spending more on luxury experiences and extended stays.Performance of Other Key European MarketsGermany has shown strong growth in revenue, increasing by 13.5% in 2025. However, France has seen a slight dip in arrivals, down by 9.8%, although French tourists have spent more per capita. The UK, on the other hand, remains more cautious, with fewer tourists visiting and spending less compared to other markets. In a surprising turn, tourist arrivals from Israel have surged by 51%, even amid the continuing geopolitical challenges in the region.Inflation and Price HikesWith Greece’s inflation sitting at 3.7%, hotel prices have climbed, making Greece a more expensive destination for some. However, these price increases have resulted in higher spending among tourists, particularly those traveling by air, who tend to have higher average budgets.Changing Travel Mix and Higher SpendingThe shift from road arrivals to air arrivals has significantly boosted per-capita spending. The average spend per tourist has grown by 10%, reaching €682 in June, with higher-spending markets like the U.S. contributing to this rise. As a result, even though the total number of tourists has not increased dramatically, the amount of money spent by each visitor has.The Future of Greek Tourism in 2025 and BeyondGreece’s tourism sector projection for 2025 remains highly positive. Although Greece’s airport arrivals growth remains uneven, the growth in air tourism capacity, and especially the surge in American travel, remains a major plus. Inflation may reduce some tourist arrivals, and the tourist prices hikes that are offered may improve revenue. Greece’s tourism sector is poised for rapid economic expansion in the years following 2025. Greece’s tourism sector projection for 2025 remains highly positive. Although Greece’s airport arrivals growth remains uneven, the growth in air tourism capacity, and especially the surge in American travel, remains a major plus. Inflation may reduce some tourist arrivals, and the tourist prices hikes that are offered may improve revenue.Greece’s outlook on tourism income this fiscal year remains strong due to the positive growth in the high spend categories dominated by the US and the increase in the availability of flights. Although there are discrepancies in travel arrivals and a fall in road access tourism, the increase in expenditure per traveler and the up graduating of services to a premium tier are expected to enhance the overall revenue and exceed the record set last year.Greece’s tourism industry faces national inflation, and a fall in some road and bridge arrivals vis a vis neighbors that may be more road dependent, and Greece 2025 tourist numbers, will be completely reliant on counterbalancing. Emphasis will be on negotiating Greece’s huge taxes and levies and Greece’s tourist offerings. What remains unchanged is that pent up demand remains very strong and that Greece has untold negative factors working against it. It is also up to the remaining more stable parts of Greece to try and balance the costs vis a vis border arrivals, and to claw back a year banked against Greece’s gigantic offshore balance. These new growing factors help explain how surplus capabilities are really working against a numbers only tourist vision, and will help Greece adjust to a more international relationship.

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